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      cndl_grn4_md_blk.gif (2968 bytes)     Excerpt from Chapter 24 cndl_grn4_md_blk.gif (2968 bytes)  

Expected Win

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In This Chapter

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"To be or not to be?" – that was the question that troubled Hamlet’s restless mind. "How much?" is what on the mind of a gambler. How much he can expect to win? What is the expected win?

For the sake of simplicity and to avoid unnecessary calculations, we’ll think about the expected win as a win per 100 bets or rounds of play. Let’s look at Table 20, which determines the advantages for different bets. Suppose I bet $10 on a Pass Line and use II-III dice arrangement to get the 3.2% advantage. After making 100 bets, the total amount wagered is $1,000. The advantage of 3.2% means, that if I’ll make many such series of 100 bets each, my average win per one series will be ($1,000)·(3.2%) = $32 or 3.2 bets. Thus, we can use the following definition for an expected win (Ex.W).

Definition: An expected win (Ex.W) is an advantage expressed in the number of betting units.

For ex, if I make the place bet on a 6 with II-III dice arrangement, I have the advantage of 8.3%. In that case, my expected win per 100 rounds of play is 8.3 bets. The expected win per 200 rounds of play will be 16.6 bets, and for 50 rounds of play – 4.15 bets. The expected win per one round of play will be 0.083 bets or 83 cents. Every one round of play will result in a loss or win of 1 bet or $10, but over many rounds of play you will average 0.083 bets or 83 cents win per one round.

You can see the expected wins per average series of 100 rounds of play in Table 21.................

  


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