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Streaks Recognition for Casino Slots/ Streaks Method & Slots Thermometer


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 Accuracy of Methodís Thermometer


In This Chapter

Problems in searching for the hot streaks

Problems in determining the start and the end of the hot streaks

How Thermometerís accuracy was determined

Accuracy for leaving a machine

Accuracy for entering a machine

Example 58

Summary of Part X


As we already know, slotsí RNGs produce winning and losing combinations of the symbols in a sequence spanning through the life of a computer chip. For an analytical player who prefers a rational approach to a casino game instead of being in a state of unhappy oblivion, that sequence presents itself in the cold and hot streaks. Like all good things in life, hot streaks are rare. Nobody wants cold streaks, but like all bad thing in life, they are always available. Since we canít create hot streaks Ė RNGs do that Ė we are facing a problem of finding them. Our search for the hot streaks is complicated by a huge number of the slots in any casino and by a high probability (95%) of any particular machine being in a cold mode at any given moment. When we enter a casino, we have no idea, which machine goes through a hot streak and which one through a cold streak. Just looking at a machine tells us as little about its current streakís temperature as looking at water determines its temperature. Until we try it with our hand, we donít have any idea how hot or cold it is. We can only do the same in our search for the hot streaks. We go to a machine and use our Thermometer to see how hot or cold it is and after that we act accordingly.

We canít predict the exact moment of the start of a hot streak in any particular machine. The most we can do is to try our best to recognize its presence when itís already in progress. Also, we canít predict the end of it. We can only make a probable conclusion that itís happening. We try to do the best from the most of what we can do by using our Thermometer. How accurate that Thermometer really is?

Every time I was leaving a machine because of a Thermometerís ďreadingĒ after playing a hot streak, I was staying near the machine for a few minutes more to see how correct that decision was. If another player immediately replaced me after my departure from a machine, I had a chance to observe a further streakís development. If I observed a cold steak, then I was right about the end of my hot streak and the decision to leave a machine was a right move to make. A cold streakís presence is revealed by a sequence of mostly cold cycles with 3 cold cycles in a row. Why few minutes were enough for observation? Because itís enough time for a cold sequence of the cycles to run in front of your mindís eye. What if in the next few minutes a new hot streak would develop in the same machine? Itís possible, itís unlikely and I wouldnít be there in principle to wait for it. Because to do that is to commit the biggest and the most dangerous mistake most of the long-term regular players often do Ė the mistake of showing a curiosity about the duration of a cold streak, of being stubborn or angry and going against a cold streak. Thatís how, according to media reports...............................